Smart Grids and The New Age of Energy...

Smart Grids and The New Age of Energy

 

Smart grid requirements:

1. Network planning
2. Power electronics (HVDC/FACTS)
3. Bulk renewable integration
4. Energy Management System (EMS)
5. Smart substation automation and protection
6. Integrated Substation Condition Monitoring (ISCM)
7. Communication Solutions
8. Distribution Management System (DMS)
9. Distribution automation and protection
10. Distributed Energy Resources (DER)
11. Decentralized Energy Management System (DEMS)
12. Smart metering solutions
13. Conclusion.                       

1. Network planning

Smart grid - A vision for the future, a network of integrated microgrids that can monitor and heal itself

Building Smart Grids is a highly complex task that begins with a detailed quantitative assessment of the system requirements, definition of actual targets and their required performance levels, and specification of system concepts and equipment.
As a result, a comprehensive strategy for building Smart Grids is necessary – including the part of the network that addresses power supply systems.

The foundation for designing an efficient Smart Grid is a detailed analysis of the system’s required performance. This is the key task for strategic network planning.

Keeping a rigorous focus on the system as a whole ensures that the architecture and configuration deliver the necessary performance levels, and meet other requirements as well. The solution will integrate the most innovative technologies for power generation, transmission, distribution and consumption, while taking into account each system’s individual history and current condition.
In most cases, the transition from today’s power supply system to the future Smart Grid cannot be made in one step; instead it requires step–by–step modification plans.

2. Power electronics (HVDC/FACTS)

Reinhausen solutions for optimized High-voltage Direct Current Transmission (HVDC)

Power electronic solutions for High Voltage Direct Current transmission (HVDC) and Flexible Alternating Current Transmission Systems (FACTS) address the greatest challenges in power transmission.
FACTS devices can significantly increase the power transmission capacity of existing alternating current (AC) systems and extend maximum AC transmission distances by balancing the variable reactive power demand of the system.
Reactive power compensation is used to control AC voltage, increase system stability, and reduce power transmission losses.
State-of-the-art FACTS devices include Fixed Series Compensators (FSC) and Thyristor Controlled Series Compensators (TCSC), orStatic VAR Compensators (SVC) for dynamic shunt compensation.

The latest generation of Siemens SVC devices is called SVC PLUS. These are highly standardized compact devicesthat can easily be implemented in demanding network environments; for example, to allow connection of large offshore wind farms.

AC technology has proven very effective in thegeneration, transmission and distribution of electrical power. Nevertheless, there are tasks that cannot be performed economically or with technical precision using AC.
These include power transmission over very long distances, as well as between networks operating asynchronously or at different frequencies. In contrast, a unique feature of HVDC systems is their ability to feed power into grids that cannot tolerate additional increases in short – circuit currents.
The transmission capacity of a single HVDC transmission system has recently been extended by Siemens Ultra High Voltage Direct Current transmission system (UHVDC).
With a capacity of more than seven gigawatts and low rate of loss, UHVDC transmission is the best way to ensure highly efficient power transmission of 2,000 kilometers or more. Electrical Super Grids based on UHVDC transmission can interconnect regions across climate and time zones, allowing seasonal changes, time of day and geographical features to be used to maximum advantage.

3. Bulk renewable integration

Solutions for Renewable Energy Integration (S&C)

In order to begin fulfilling the climate protection requirements of 2020, we need to use energy efficiently and reduce CO₂ emissions. Power generation needs to change accordingly.
Large power plants will continue to ensure basic supplies, but there will also be renewable energy sources that fluctuate locally depending on weather and other conditions.

4. Energy Management System (EMS)

Smart Grid Distribution Network - Energy Management System (EMS)

At power plants, the focus is on ensuring reliable supply, using generation resources efficiently, and reducing transmission losses.
As Energy Management System (EMS) handles these by balancing the demands of the transmission system, generating units, and consumption. Intelligent Alarm Processors (IAPs) reduce the critical time needed to analyze faults in the grid and take corrective action, as well as the risk of incorrect analysis.
Innovative Voltage Stability Analysis (VSA) applications running automatically and independently alert the operator before critical situations that jeopardize static system voltage stability occur, giving the operator time to take preventive action rather than having to react under stress. Increased grid reliability is provided by Optimal Power Flow (OPF) applications that continuously work to keep the system’s voltage level high and eliminate invalid voltage conditions.
Any control measures that must be taken can be automatically executed in a closed-loop-control procedure.

5. Smart substation automation and protection

The automation and protection of substations must be enhanced to securely meet the extended requirements of future Smart Grids. The substation is in the process of becoming a node on the utility IT network for all information from the distribution substation to the customer.
For example, data from the feeder automation units, power quality, meters, decentralized energy resources and home automation systems will be collected and analyzed to improve the system.

Besides the new Smart Grid challenges, the usual task of protection, control and automation have to remain as reliable and efficient as ever.

The objectives for substations are beginning to cross departmental boundaries, encompassing operations, maintenance and security requirements. Smart substation solutions and their individual components should be designed with this overarching vision and framework in mind.
Smart Substation Automation Systems support the following goals:

1. Secure and reliable power supply
2. Guaranteed high levels of protection for facilitiesand people
3. Reduction of manual interactions to enhance rapid self-healing operations
4. Implementation of intelligent remote error monitoring, detection, reporting
5. Enabling condition-based predictive maintenance
6. Support for engineering and testing through plug-and-play functionality
7. Proactively distributing substation information to all relevant stakeholders
8. Reduced costs for installation and maintenance.

6. Integrated Substation Condition Monitoring (ISCM)

Integrated Substation Condition Monitoring (ISCM) is a modular system for monitoring all relevant substation components, from the transformer and switchgear to the overhead line and cable.

Based on known, proven telecontrol units and substation automation devices, ISCM provides a comprehensive solution perfectly suited to substation environments.

It integrates seamlessly into the existing communication infrastructure so that monitoring information from the station and the control center is displayed.

7. Communication Solutions

The new Age of Electricity is characterized by a mix of both central and decentralized power generation, which requires bidirectional energy flows – including power from smart buildings and residential areas where consumers are becoming ‘prosumers’.
A key prerequisite for this paradigm shift is a homogeneous, end-to-end communication network that provides sufficient bandwidth between all grid elements.
Telecommunication systems for power grid transmission have a long history in the utility industry. In today’s transmission grids, almost all substations are integrated into a communication network that allows online monitoring and controlling by an Energy Management System (EMS).

In a distribution grid, the situation is quite different. Whereas high voltage substations are often equipped with digital communication, the communication infrastructure at lower distribution levels is weak.

In most countries, fewer than ten percent (10%) of transformer substations and ring – main units (RMUs) are monitored and controlled remotely. Communication technologies have continued to develop rapidly over the past few years, and the Ethernet has become the established standard in the power supply sector.
International communication standards like IEC 61850 will further simplify the exchange of data between different communication partners. Serial interfaces will, however, continue to play a role in the future for small systems.
An important element in creating and operating Smart Grid is comprehensive, consistent communication using sufficient bandwidth and devices with IP/Ethernet capability.
Networks of this kind must eventually extend all the way to individual consumers, who will be integrated into them using smart metering. Consistent end-to-end communication helps meet the requirement for online monitoring ofall grid components and, among other things, creates opportunities to develop new business models for smart metering and integrating distributed power generation.

8. Distribution Management System (DMS)

Distribution Management System (DMS)

Today’s distribution grid operation is primarily characterized by manual procedures that rely on the expertise of an aging workforce.
Using Spectrum Power Distribution Management System (DMS) will create a smart, self-healing grid by providing the following enhancements:

1. Reduction of the occurrence and duration of outagesthrough the application of advanced fault location and network reconfiguration algorithms.
2. Minimization of losses through improved monitoring.
3. Optimized utilization of assets through management of demand and distributed generation.
4. Reduction of maintenance costs through online condition monitoring.

The smart management of power distribution grids is one of the key success factors for achieving ambitious Smart Grid goals.

9. Distribution automation and protection

The prerequisite for comprehensive automation and protection design is determining the required levels of automation and functionality for distribution substations and RMUs.
This could differ among the RMUs in one distribution grid or in the same feeder because of different primary equipment or communication availability. However, with or without limited communication access, a certain level of automation and Smart Grid functionality can still be realized, as can a mix of functions inone feeder automation system.
The following levels of distribution automation can serve as a roadmap for grid upgrades moving toward the implementation of a Smart Grid:
Local Automation (without communication)

• Sectionalizer (automated fault restoration by usingswitching sequences)
• Voltage regulator (automated voltage regulation for long feeders)
• Recloser controller (auto-reclose circuit breaker for overhead lines)

Monitoring only (one-way communication to distribution substation or control center)

• Messaging box (for example, short-circuit indicators with one-way communication to distribution substation to control center for fast fault location)

Control, monitoring, and automation (two-way communication to distribution substation or control center)

• Distribution Automation RTU (DA – RTU) with powerful communication and automation features applicable to Smart Grid functions, for instance:
• Automated self-healing routines
• Node station for power quality applications
• Data concentrator for smart metering systems
• Node station for decentralized power generation
• Node station for demand – response applications

Protection, control, monitoring, and automation (two-way communication to distribution substation or control center)

• Recloser controller for overhead lines, plus auto reclose breaker with enhanced protection functionality and advanced communication and automation features.

10. Distributed Energy Resources (DER)

Different configurations for managing DER

The integration of distributed energy resources (DER) calls for a completely new concept: the virtual power plant. A virtual power plant connects many small plants that participate in the energy market in a completely new way.
It makes it possible to use sales channels that otherwise would not be available to the operators of individual plants.

Linked together in the network, the power plants can be operated even more efficiently and therefore more economically than before, benefiting the operators of decentralized generating facilities.

In the virtual power plant, decentralized energy management and communication with the generating facilities play a special role, and thanks to the Siemens products Decentralized Energy Management System (DEMS) and DER Controller, are optimally supported. The centerpiece is DEMS, which enables the intelligent, economical and environmentally friendly linkage of decentralized energy sources.
The DER Controller facilitates communications, and is specifically tailored to the requirements of decentralized energy sources.

11. Decentralized Energy Management System (DEMS)

DEMS, the core of the virtual power plant, is equally appropriate for utilities, industrial operations, operators of functional buildings, energy self-sufficient communities, regions and energy service providers.

Decentralized Energy Management System (DEMS) - Scheme

DEMS uses three tools to optimize power:

1. Predictions,
2. Operational planning and
3. Real-time optimization.

The prediction tool anticipates electrical and heat loads; for example, as a function of the weather and the time of day. Predicting generation from renewable energy sources is also important, and is based on weather forecasts and the unique characteristics of the plants.
Short-term planning to optimize operating costs of all installed equipment must comply with technical and contractually specified background conditions every 15 minutes for a maximum of one week in advance.
The calculated plan minimizes the costs of generation and operation, while DEMS also manages cost efficiency and environmental considerations.

12. Smart metering solutions

A B.C. Hydro smart meter, which uses short bursts of radio waves to communicate with the electricity grid.

The Automated Metering and Information System (AMIS) records the power consumption of each individual consumer over time, and in turn, consumers are given detailed information about their power consumption.
Experts estimate that the use of smart meters can save up to ten terawatt-hours of electricity, or almost two percent of total energy consumption.

Conclusion

There is no doubt that the future belongs to the Smart Grid, and that power generation will change significantly by the time it becomes a reality.
Large power plants will continue to ensure the basic supply, but there will also be renewable energy sources, causing fluctuations in the grid. In the not too distant future, flexible intermediate storage of temporary excess power in the grid will be possibleusing electric vehicles and stationary storage units.
Sensors and smart meters will switchthese units on or off, ensuring efficient load management.

Energy Harvesting ‘Piezo-tree’ Concept

Energy Harvesting ‘Piezo-tree’ Concept.

As the leaves move in the wind energy is generated, this is then converted into electric energy. The flapping motion of the leaves is attributed to instability of the aero-elastic system. The “Piezo-tree” has been made using flexible piezoelectric material Polyvinylidene Fluoride (PVDF).

 

 The device is able to convert the energy in wind into electric power whilst remaining light, low-cost, and easily scaled.

 

In the prototype, the flexible plate and film are driven to oscillate just as a flag or leaf might flap in the wind. The flapping motion is attributed to instability of the aero-elastic system. When creating the piezo-tree, researches used the flexible piezoelectric material Polyvinylidene Fluoride (PVDF) as the basic component, as it could withstand unpredictable wind strength. The basic design is to clamp one edge of PVDF element to a cylinder bluff body and leave the other edge free. When the wind crosses this bluff body, it will lead to a vortex shedding and the periodic pressure difference will drive the piezo-leaf to bend in the downstream of the air wake, synchronously. AC signal is collected from the flapping piezo-leaf, which is working on a periodic bending model, and the electrical energy is stored in a capacitor after rectifying it with a full-wave bridge.

 

 

 

 

However, because of the weak piezoelectric strain coefficient of PVDF, the preliminary Piezo-Leaf Generator's power level was just about 100 pW, unable to drive even a common LED. Then, researchers tried to attach a piece of plastic film to the end of the leaf along the direction of air flow, which showed about 100 times increase of power in the same condition. A series of experiments were conducted using attachments of various shape, area, density and flexibility of plastic and polymer film producing different results in the level of power.

 

 Sure the artificial trees are inspired by real trees, and SolarBotanic's Nanoleaves convert sunlight into energy just like tree leaves, but the energy user is not the leaf or the tree itself. To convert sunlight into energy, the Nanoleaves contain photothermovoltaic cells, that convert the whole spectrum of light, even light we can't see, like radiation, into electricity,

Nano piezo electric generators in the twigs and branches, simultaneously convert wind into millions of Pico watts. The more the wind blows, the more the leaves move (flap frequency), the more the Nano piezo generators are stimulated to make more energy, and then you have trillions of Pico watts!

Another fascinating SolarBotanic technology is used to separate the carbon dioxide from other elements in the air. It involves biomimicry of the human lung. The device at the bottom of the tree below has a fixed carrier in the membrane that enables only the "good" air molecules to convert to energy.

Right now, two main kinds of trees are drawn up. One, the broad leaf trees, can provide between 33500 kWh and 7000kWh per year, in addition to providing shade, breeze, and beautty. Another biomimicry design, the Octopus root system, secures the broad leaf trees in the ground.
SolarBotanic's ever green trees provide between 2500kWh and 7000kWh per year. These trees are good for mountainous regions and hill sides, as they provide good sound absorbers.
SolarBotanics has also planned a variety of smaller artificial shrubs for your smaller electrical needs, like household appliances. SolarBotanic has Nanoleaf roof and wall carpets that can be easily installed with various leaf designs.
As you can see, SolarBotanic trees and leaves have many functions besides providing energy.

 

Additionally, design optimization studies found that a particular vertical stalk, horizontal leaf arrangement could increase power output by an order of magnitude. This is a massive, ten-fold improvement over current leaf-stalk arrangements. As a simple, robust, and easily scaled device, the "piezo-tree" would serve as an effective and unique power generator in a variety of environments. For practical application the researchers hope to build plant-like devices with hundreds or thousands of piezo-leaves.

The movement of leaves is responsible for generating energy. They convert wind energy into electrical energy. The flapping motion of the leaves causes the instability of the aero-elastic system. The main constituent of the “Piezo-tree” is of Polyvinylidene Fluoride (PVDF) which is a flexible piezoelectric material.

 

 

 

 

 The Piezo Tree

 

 

The field of piezo technology is extensive and has many branches. The "piezo tree" already bears numerous fruits, but continues to develop new blossoms. Piezo elements serve, for instance, as filters for electromagnetic waves (surface acoustic wave filters, filter ceramics).

They convert electromagnetic signals into sound (loudspeakers, buzzers) and vice versa (telephone microphones, knock sensors), and they transform mechanical pressure into electrical signals (batteryless wireless technology, piezo igniter). Some elements serve as ultrasonic sensors, while others create ultrasound in echo sounders, in medical diagnostics, in flow-rate meters or for fluid atomization. Piezo actuators are a new, fast-growing branch that enables applications ranging from piezo injector valves right up to powerful piezo motors. Such motors are already available, for instance, from Elliptec Resonant Actuator AG—a start-up that emerged from Siemens—for the toy and consumer market. Multilayer actuators are also suitable for a completely new type of power window for automobiles that contains integrated sensor technology

Siemens was also the leader in developing piezo transducers for ultrasound diagnostics in healthcare and for the first inkjet printers, in which a jet of ink was ejected from thin piezo tubes. Corporate Research provided the momentum for many of these innovations. For example, Andreas Kappel, who had previously worked on the development of piezo inkjet printers and has registered numerous patents since the 1990s, also gave piezo injectors a very big push. He developed hydraulic translators that could increase the stroke of a piezo actuator and compensate for changes of length due to temperature. "The inkjet printer tubes are fundamentally nothing other than mini injection nozzles," says Kappel, who received the coveted Siemens accolade "Inventor of the Year" in 2002.

Another coup was pulled off by the Piezo Laboratory, in the form of the surface acoustic wave (SAW) filter made of lithium niobate, which replaced electromagnetic filters in Grundig television sets in 1977 and markedly improved picture and sound quality. Unlike the large, costly 100 kHz filters for telecommunications technology, SAWs were small and inexpensive. Although they quickly became popular, they didn’t make real money until the mobile phone boom took off. "Mobile phones would be unthinkable without SAWs," says Guntersdorfer.

In 1989, the piezo team scored a huge success in automotive engineering with the knock sensor, an electronic ear for the engine that optimizes fuel efficiency. "There are now 40 million engines equipped with Siemens knock sensors worldwide," reports physicist Randolf Mock. Mock considerably advanced the development of the sensor by means of computerized simulations.
Batteryless radio technology is a new development from the "piezo works." By simply pressing a light switch, a piezoelectric energy transducer is able to generate enough energy to transmit a radio signal to the light source. In 2001, Siemens employees founded start-up EnOcean in order to market the invention. In the meantime, other ideas have been implemented, including a tire sensor that works without batteries.

Airbia lets suburban commuters fly high

 Airbia lets suburban commuters fly high

                                    Airbia is an amazing airship designed by Alexandros Tsolakis and Irene Shamma. It is possible that such eco-friendly airships will replace in the near future today's air-polluting means of transport.
Airbia infrastructure system will make it possible for people to travel from suburban areas to urban city centers fast and easy. The airships use helium and with overhead loading platforms the system will require a rather small amount of infrastructure. It is worth mentioning that each airship will have the possibility to carry up to 400 people and the average speed of travel will reach 93 miles an hour (150km/h). Airbia airships will fly at heights that will range between 30 and 500 meters above the ground.
According to Tsolakis and Shamma, their system could replace vehicles and trains as a mean of transportation that helps people get from suburbs to city centers. Airbia represents one of 20 amazing finalists in ReBurbia contest to redesign the suburbs. 


 

 
One of the 20 outstanding finalists in ReBurbia competition, “Airbia” is ingeniously designed airship that offers an incredible flight from suburban homes to urban city centers. Alexandros Tsolakis and Irene Shamma’s creation is a transformation from the hectic and unpleasant polluted road trips to a freshening sky touching flight. This fantastic eco-friendly airship is an inspiration from zeppelin technologies which uses helium for easy hovering in a much economic manner. It replaces the need for major airship stations with scattered network of station-platforms requiring limited infrastructure. The entire system is highly flexible consisting only staircases, lifts and ticket spaces offering simple landing and passenger access. With a seating provision for 400 people, the aircraft travels 30-500 meters above the ground, at an average speed of 150 km/h. Offering such delight and comfort to suburban commutes, Airbia is here to redefine the transportation system between the suburbs and the city centers, creating pollution free, non-traffic pickup and drop-off platforms, covering all the borders of the city. The prevailing transport industry is sure to feel insecure with Airbia entering into the big picture.


 
 

 
What’s lighter than air, soars through the sky, and stands to save our suburbs by breaking the shackles of car culture? The answer is Airbia, an incredible fleet of high-flying airships that aims to create an efficient and eco-friendly alternative to smog-choked suburban commutes. Designed by Alexandros Tsolakis and Irene Shamma, the airship infrastructure system ferries passengers quickly and easily from their suburban homes to urban city centers, and we imagine that gliding through the clouds at the break of dawn each day would make for a heck of a morning commute.

 

Google's driverless car

Google's driverless car 
 

Google's driverless car has been proven, and Google has already got the state's of California and Nevada on board with them. They are now working with officials in these districts to develop laws for the implementation of fully-autonomous vehicles.


Google says that it now needs to move forward as fast as possible with this technology, which I believe can be decoded as: "All our competitors know as well as we do that driverless cars are the soon-to-be future, because we've shown that it can be done and that we will continue to develop this technology. And most importantly, the key political barriers have been removed". [note: This paragraph is not a literal quote].


In other words the race is on. No-one informed on this issue is second-guessing whether driverless cars are the future now. Even politicians, world over and in New Zealand, are starting to talk seriously about it. Good!
What driverless cars mean:
Most people think in terms of a new system under an old roof when thinking about driverless cars. It's wrong-thinking, because driverless cars will redefine transport as we know it and even much of the operational structure of our cities.
Firstly, most of us will not personally own a driverless car. Driverless cars will give us the rise of the taxi, though the demise of the taxi-driver. They will give us network-based transport whereby we simply order-up the car we want, for the job we want, and then ditch it (or should I say it ditches itself) after you've used it. Network-based transport will be the 'new roof'.
Driverless cars will be directly matched to demand, which means that most cars will be designed for single-occupancy usage only. This shift, more than anything, will revolutionise transport efficiency.





So how should the single-occupancy vehicle look?
The most substantial thing you can do to make cars more comfortable, is to design them to be self-tilting so as to get rid of side-forces while traveling. Doing that in a 4-wheeled vehicle is problematic, but in a 2-wheeled vehicle it is of course easy and necessary.
This is why I predict that the most common type of autonomous taxi will be a somewhat spacious, enclosed motorcycle. It will be stabilised with retractable wheels (for static stability) and/or gyroscopes*.
The following image gives us the Mono-tracer. It's an enclosed motorcycle similar to what I suggest.

Also it's important to note that with driverless cars, the free time that's liberated makes comfort only more important. If people are to use their cars as an office, dinner table, bed, etc, then getting rid of side-forces will be even more important. This is especially the case for a hilly country like New Zealand which is almost nothing but corners.
And finally, an enclosed 2-wheeled vehicle is extremely economical and energy-efficient to run. With aggressive streamlining, you can get a hybrid vehicle of this type down to less than 10% of the fuel consumption of a standard 4-wheeled vehicle today.
Electronic infrastructure:
Google has demonstrated that it can fully automate its cars with no infrastructural investment in the existing road network to accommodate them. That is quite a testimony to how far this technology has come, and how close its implementation is. However, because we now know that driverless cars are the future, it might be to everyone's advantage to look at the possibility of directly conditioning the roads to assist electronic control - for the sake of reducing net costs, and possibly improving performance.
We could look at impregnating passive-RF chips in the ground, so auto-cars can get instant and totally exact feedback on their positions (with no advanced information processing), and we can maybe install embedded wires that contain a radio signal for easier positioning of the cars, etc. There is also the possibility of installing road-based sensors that communicate to auto-cars, allowing them to see around corners. This would radically empower the defensive-driving capability of auto-cars, and far beyond what a human could achieve.

Again, because we know where we're going with this technology, it makes sense to study how best to accommodate the driverless revolution via the public-infrastructural response.
Solid/mechanical infrastructure:
Although there are many important questions around how our cities could (or should) develop in response to driverless car technology, if we can loosely predict that the enclosed motorcycle is the future then the government could consider the following:

The idea is to condition existing roads so as to provide discrete super-elevation for autonomous 2-wheeled vehicles. The hump in the road (red part of the included diagram) would only be about 1 to 2 feet wide.

On the scale of things it would be a trivial cost and an easy thing to do. It would make autonomous vehicles safer, more efficient and significantly reduce tyre wear. Also it gives us the opportunity to smooth-out the roads for most traffic, further improving comfort.

The motorcycle would have to follow a relatively strict travel path on the road, but that's easy enough with electronic control. However, slight rear-wheel steering might be necessary if super-elevation is used in tight corners.

-Further to improve smoothness and comfort, the bikes should be series-hybrids. This means make them electric, but include a diesel-generator for range. Care should be taken to isolate vibrations coming from the generator, and to this end an opposed-piston engine would be very effective as it's almost perfectly balanced (vibrationless).

City planning:

Local governments in New Zealand are infatuated with the belief that their cities should be high-density in form, and they in turn believe their cities should be forced to evolve in that way. Ignoring the fact that they are desperately wrong, the fact remains that full-automation transport technology is a radical game-changer on its own, no matter what your current planning philosophy might be. Local and central governments will need to rethink their ideas in relation to a full-automation transport world.

For example, if people can commute on non-congested roads at 10% of the total cost of today's transport (not unrealistic), and do business in their car via the Cloud, how then would this affect the rational structure of a modern city form? Do we really need to suffocate land supply so as to force people to live closer together, when it's just as or even more efficient to let them spread out? And when such beautiful locations to live in are so easily accessible, in terms of both travel time/pleasure and cost, does it then really make sense to actively deprive people of this option? And how will your economy fare by taking away people's idealised lifestyles, while other economies do not? Will people even hang around?

Further still, if people can work from home yet easily access their work place for when they specifically need to, then how many new commercial buildings will we need to build? Maybe New Zealand would be better off just demolishing its dodgy earthquake-risk buildings and rolling-out the fiber-optics instead?

Commercial impact:

There is strong rumor that Google is already working to implement their autonomous technology to provide a delivery service. It's obvious enough that a delivery service would be an ideal first-step application for driverless cars. A car that delivers goods may only need to be about, say, a 30th of the size of a normal car, so it won't have the strict safety issues associated with bigger vehicles that transport people. And the operational costs of tiny autonomous cars will of course be trivial.

Micro-cars will give us the "physical internet". The impact that micro-cars alone will have will be fascinating.

I think one of the most distinct effects that we will see from micro-cars is home-cooking being reduced to hobby status, because it will be soon be too easy (and cheap) to have a good meal delivered to you. With micro-cars the rationale exists to develop massive kitchen complexes that mass-produce varied meals, because the system allows for a single production-point to reach-out to a large consumer-base efficiently (and quickly). Also these kitchens can be efficiently supplied with fresh local food. Watch out for food production monopolies/cartels developing in the future.

The micro-cars also make it convenient for people to hire more than buy, for infrequently used items. And they can allow retail to come to you rather than the other way around. I predict that retail as we know it will be largely converted to a showcase industry - most things will be bought and delivered online.

Industrial impact:

Autonomous transport allows for efficient outsourcing in production. So efficient, that it can give us a "go-anywhere" production-line, allowing the production process to be efficiently split amongst various factories. The advantage is better utilisation of capital and skills for smaller production runs. Conversely, full automation allows machinery to be transported efficiently to a site, also allowing for better utilisation of capital. Hiring an expensive machine is easier if it's used twice as often.

The physical internet makes bypassing the middleman easy enough. Manufacturers will no doubt prefer to sell their products directly, as traditional retail is seen more as a parasitic cost.

Conclusion:

Both the public and private sectors need to start thinking about driverless car technology, and how it might affect their operations.  Driverless technology will penetrate society in ways far beyond what I have currently speculated over. It's not here yet, but it's close, inevitable, and the impact will be nothing less than profound.

The sooner we can know what we're dealing with, the better we can manage (and exploit) its future impact.

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*The feasibility of gyroscopes is questionable to me, simply because of the bearing wear. Small gyroscopes must spin at an incredible speed for an application like this, and I don't know if they will prove to be efficient or practical for general vehicle use.

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EXTENDED THOUGHTS:

Tourism:

New Zealand tourism, in particular, could benefit enormously from driverless cars. This is because New Zealand is like the entire world under one small roof. It goes from snowy mountains in the South to sub-tropical in the North, within a total length of 1,600 km. Obviously if people can take a driverless (and self-tilting) car to where ever they want to go, without any hassle, fuss or significant discomfort, then this will be worth a lot to any traveler, especially a traveler who does not know their way around.

I have expressed before that I believe there is huge potential for New Zealand tourism exploiting driverless technology. Maybe it's time to focus on what this will mean. Realistically, the value of New Zealand's attractions are as great as they are accessible. Driverless technology can and will hugely improve practical accessibility.

Public transport:

Auckland and other areas of New Zealand are hell-bent on investing in rail systems, which they believe to be the future for transport. The modern polycentric city does not work too well with collective transport, which is almost always only effective for supporting CBD's of which, generally, represent about 10% of metropolitan transport demand.

Without going into details on this debate, I will point out that one of the first "casualties" of driverless technology will be the shuttle-bus, because this is where driverless technology for passenger transport will make the most sense to begin with (maximum bang for the buck).

So how will buses and trains compete with automated shuttle-buses that can platoon to form road-trains, as required, and can operate with more flexibility, frequency, are faster, and have a much reduced operating cost? Auckland is currently looking to invest billions into what is about to become a glorious white elephant rail system. See here for my article on automated shuttle-buses.

Google HUB:

If Google plays it's game right (and I think they probably will) they will work with their driverless technology to become the one-stop hub for most material online transactions.

A driverless delivery service is about reducing costs and increasing convenience, and a logical way to reinforce this value is to provide standardised online formatting for consumers and suppliers who are using the automated transportation network.

This means creating a standardised web format (similar to blogger, which is what you're reading right now) so that anyone selling a product and/or service can easily put their products online with Google. Having a standardised format means that consumers don't have to "learn" a new website every time they want to make an online transaction with a new supplier, which of course makes online purchasing more attractive.

Another thing Google should provide is Google credit. Basically, the model I'm thinking of is to have the consumer install credit onto a 'Google account' in the same way that we install credit onto our cellphones. From here, within the standardised web format, people can make a one-click purchase instantly to any third party integrated with Google's system. Total streamlining - no time-wasting duplication.

Google has the golden opportunity to do this, because it's in the lead with producing an automated delivery service. They can compound the value of their services and accelerate the demand and evolution of them, by simultaneously developing this kind of online support infrastructure. I hope for everyone's sake they move in this direction as it only makes sense, and I would be surprised if they do not. The online world needs a fully streamlined hub like this, for efficiency.

Safety:

Google has suggested that driverless cars will one-day cut the road toll by 50% or more. I have to say this assertion is beyond conservative, and looks more like playing it safe (by not over-promising) than realism. I would say they're probably claiming 50% for in case the worst happens in these sensitive early stages.

The truth is in a driverless world accidents will quickly become freak incidents. They will happen from things like landslides and tornadoes, and maybe the odd kid running out on the road at the very last second, overwhelming the stopping power of rubber-on-road.

...But try more like a 98% reduction - not just 50%!

The key to making fail-safe systems is redundancy. Build your system so that if one component fails there will be another to take over its role, to avoid an accident. You can achieve redundancy through both hardware and software. For hardware, for example, you can install a powerful handbrake that can also co-function as a fail-safe for the main breaks, if they fail, etc.

As for software, you simply programme fail-safe adaptive programmes into the computer. Think of driving your car down the road and the accelerator and brake gets stuck. What do you do? Turn off your engine, change gear for engine braking, and maybe apply the handbrake. This example scenario would not be a back-up in terms of hardware, but a "software" response to failed hardware.

Google will no doubt use very reliable components in all their cars, and in time they will surely develop appropriate redundancy - making auto-cars far safer than what humans are or could ever be. This is another key advantage of having a network-based system - you can afford to invest heavily in safety features for each working car, because each car is replacing about 20 privately owned vehicles, trivialising the costs.

Also, a driverless world means less cars parked up alongside the road. The result is that pedestrians can see the cars coming much better, and the auto-cars can likewise see pedestrians better. The result can only be much safer for everyone - not just the people in the auto-cars.

Auto-Taxi: How it may play out.

Let's say it cost $50,000 to fully automate a taxi that's used 24/7. (And $50,000 is more than generous. It will be much less than that, in time). Looks costly, but even at that price it will pay for itself in about 3 months from labour savings. This is why we can expect the first mass-uptake of auto-cars to come from taxi operators - huge bangs for the bucks.

The consumer will not see a major reduction in taxi fares during the initial stages of the implementation of auto-taxi's. The profit will go to taxi operators, but that is what we want because it then provides the profit-signal that induces more (and rapid) investment into auto-taxi's.

However, in good time the (existing) market for taxi's will be saturated, and nearly all taxi's will be auto-taxi's. From here, established taxi companies will compete against each other, and they will also compete against start-up's for market share.

This is the point where the consumer will start to get the pay-off. Because auto-taxi's are much cheaper to run, their fare-price can drop hugely before they fail to make a tangible profit; and indeed, this price-lowering will happen progressively over time*.

So, the competition and initial market saturation will drive down prices to where you would expect them to be, relating to basic supply costs and profits. And as a result of lowered prices, auto-taxi's will begin to compete with personal transport and proportionally claim a greater market share over land transport in general.

Prices will further drop (and performance will increase) as auto-taxi's increase in number, which allows the total-system to better avoid redundant travel from the empty-returning/sending of vehicles.

At some point of the evolution, either sooner or later, we will see the introduction of ultra cheap single-seat vehicles. [Note: I would recommend to Google to look at doing this more sooner than later, because the cheaper and smaller the cars are, the more of them you can get on the road, and sooner, providing a rapid increase in service appeal. You can't lose with small cars. In a massive 7+ billion world that spreads from poverty to wealth, small cars will always be the ideal for a specific target-market, somewhere].

As cheap taxi's proliferate, we will see them come to completely dominate modern transport demand. Network-based transport will be the new model, and the new transport world.

-Some people have said that we won't see a driverless revolution until some time like 2040. Nonsense. Once driverless cars get a foothold in the taxi-world, which should be only a few years away, this progression will go off like a bomb. It's all about price signals and the price signals are too strong.

Note: Respect that the only thing we need for a 'taxi revolution' to begin is the legal go-ahead for cars to at least empty send/return. People can still drive them if we insist (while inheriting the advanced safety features and platooning capabilities of self-driving cars, included). So, you could begin with small 2-seat taxi's weighing only about 500kg or so (ultra efficient), and the central advantages would already be achieved. Legal authority to ride without driving can come later, if need be. Again - that is how close this movement is.

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*er...so long as "McTaxi" doesn't somehow bribe your government to enforce regulations that choke-off competitive supply-responses. You have been warned! Don't let our property disaster happen in transport too. Make sure your government works for the citisen, and not some monopolistic creep show.

Seeing around corners:

In an urban environment, which is lit, you can mount a simple camera on an existing lamp-pole, whereby the camera serves the function of detecting oncoming traffic in terms of speed and position - collecting and sending only the most basic information. This is all you need to optimise the safety of an auto-car system, and it should be extremely cheap to install.

There's nothing to it. Just a basic camera, a solar panel + battery, a micro-chip with minimal visual software (to detect and calculate the speed of oncoming cars), a blue-tooth type message-send (to the auto-cars), and finally visible lines on the road to provide a reference for the camera-assembly to calculate the speed of passing objects. Refer to the following image:

Being able to have a system that can see around corners for cheap, means you can put these sensors anywhere you feel you might need them. It will help to make the system bullet-proof as far as safety and defensive driving goes.